Part of the complete guide: Lottery odds: the complete guide
The basic formula
CryptoDrawz picks 14 different winning tickets from the T tickets in a draw. Each ticket is equally likely to be picked at every position. So:
- Chance a given ticket wins the grand prize: 1 in T.
- Chance it is one of the 3 runner-ups: 3 in T.
- Chance it is one of the 10 lucky draws: 10 in T.
- Chance it wins any prize: 14 in T (about 14 divided by T).
Worked examples
| Tickets sold (T) | Prize pool (90%) | Grand prize | Chance of any prize, one ticket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | $450 | $225 | 14 in 100 (14%) |
| 500 | $2,250 | $1,125 | 14 in 500 (2.8%) |
| 1,000 | $4,500 | $2,250 | 14 in 1,000 (1.4%) |
| 5,000 | $22,500 | $11,250 | 14 in 5,000 (0.28%) |
| 20,000 | $90,000 | $45,000 | 14 in 20,000 (0.07%) |
These are illustrations of the formula. Real draws depend on real ticket counts. A draw under 50 tickets is cancelled and refunded.
Why odds and prizes trade off
Every extra ticket adds $4.50 to the prize pool (90% of $5) and one more entry to beat. The pool grows linearly with T while your chance per ticket shrinks as 1 in T. The average return per ticket stays the same, which is what the next guide on expected value covers.
This is why a small draw feels like a fairer game, with better odds but smaller prizes, and a large one feels like a lottery of dreams.
What happens if you buy several tickets
If you buy n tickets out of T, your chance of at least one prize is a little under 14n in T, because the same 14 slots cannot be filled twice by one ticket. For small n relative to T the difference is tiny, so 14n/T is a good approximation.
| You hold | Out of 1,000 tickets | Chance of at least one prize (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 ticket | 0.1% of the draw | 1.4% |
| 5 tickets | 0.5% | 6.8% |
| 10 tickets | 1% | 13.1% |
| 50 tickets | 5% | about 51% |
Notice what this does not say: it does not say that buying more is a good idea. It says only how chances scale. Your expected loss scales the same way.
Comparing with giant jackpots
The main Powerball prize has published odds of about 1 in 292 million at the time of writing. A weekly pool draw with 1,000 tickets gives each ticket a 1 in 1,000 chance at its top prize and a 1.4% chance at some prize. The prizes are far smaller, but the chances are real enough to be meaningful.
Use the odds calculator
The home page includes an odds calculator. Enter the tickets in the draw and the tickets you hold, and it shows your chances and prize sizes. Remember that the final number of tickets is only known when the draw closes.
The maths behind "14 in T"
Picture all T tickets in a hat, and draw 14 without putting any back. By symmetry every ticket is equally likely to end up among the 14, and since there are 14 slots for T tickets, a given ticket's chance is 14 divided by T. The grand prize is the first draw, so any specific ticket has a 1 in T chance of being first.
Chance of at least one prize with several tickets
If you hold n tickets, the chance that none of them win is the number of ways to choose 14 winners from the other tickets divided by the number of ways to choose 14 from all of them. For small n it is close to (1 minus 14/T) raised to the power n, which is why the numbers in our table are slightly below 14n/T. For example, with 10 tickets of 1,000 the exact chance of at least one prize is about 13.1%, not 14%.
Reading odds responsibly
- A 14% chance of winning something means you will not win about 86% of the time.
- Prizes below your ticket cost are possible. In a small draw, a lucky-draw prize may be under $100.
- The chance is for one draw. It does not accumulate into a guarantee over several draws.
Ready?
A weekly draw you can check yourself.
$5 tickets, a public random value, and every result published with the data to recompute it.
Frequently asked questions
Are odds the same for every ticket?
Yes. Every ticket in a draw has the same chance, regardless of when it was bought or who bought it.
Does buying early improve my odds?
No. Timing within the draw window does not change your chance.
Can my ticket win more than one prize?
No. 14 different tickets win, each one prize.
Why do prizes change from draw to draw?
Because the pool is 90% of that draw's ticket sales.