Part of the complete guide: Bitcoin lottery mining: the complete guide
What the halving is
New bitcoin enters circulation as the block subsidy paid to the miner of each block. Bitcoin's rules say the subsidy halves after every 210,000 blocks. At about ten minutes per block, that is roughly four years. The schedule makes Bitcoin's supply predictable: it is capped at just under 21 million coins, with the last fractions created around the year 2140.
The halvings so far
| Halving | Date | Subsidy after |
|---|---|---|
| Launch | January 2009 | 50 BTC |
| First | November 2012 | 25 BTC |
| Second | July 2016 | 12.5 BTC |
| Third | May 2020 | 6.25 BTC |
| Fourth | April 2024 | 3.125 BTC |
| Fifth (expected) | Around 2028 | 1.5625 BTC |
Dates are approximate and based on block height. The next halving date depends on the pace of block production.
What it does to miners
A halving cuts miners' subsidy income overnight, so mining gets less profitable unless the price of bitcoin rises or fees make up the difference. Less efficient or high-cost miners may switch off, and the industry tends to consolidate around cheaper power and better hardware. Over time, transaction fees are expected to become a larger part of what secures the network.
What it means for lottery miners
See the Bitcoin lottery miner odds calculator, where you can change the block subsidy and bitcoin price.
- Your chance of finding a block depends on your share of the hashing power, not on the subsidy, so the halving does not change your odds.
- It halves the prize you would win, all else equal. A block worth about $275,000 at today's price would be worth about half that after the next halving at the same price.
- The price, difficulty and fees can offset the change, and nobody can predict them.
Does the halving move the price?
Opinions differ, and nobody can predict it. Some argue the reduced new supply tends to push prices up over time, others argue the effect is already priced in. Past price rises after halvings are not a promise of future ones. Treat any claim about a guaranteed outcome as a red flag.
A worked example: what a halving does to a block's value
Suppose bitcoin trades at $85,000 and a block carries 0.15 BTC in fees. Before a halving the block pays 3.125 + 0.15 = 3.275 BTC, worth about $278,000. After the halving, with the same price and fees, it pays 1.5625 + 0.15 = 1.7125 BTC, worth about $145,600, a fall of 48%. For the block to be worth the same as before, the price would have to rise to about $162,000, or fees would have to rise a lot. This is why miners watch both the price and fees closely around a halving, and why lottery miners should expect the prize to shrink unless the price climbs.
Common misunderstandings about halvings
- "Halving halves the number of bitcoin that exist." No. It halves the rate at which new bitcoin is created.
- "Halvings happen on a fixed date." No. They happen at a block height (every 210,000 blocks), so the date drifts with block speed.
- "The price always doubles after a halving." There is no such rule. Past rises did not follow a formula and nobody can promise a repeat.
- "Mining stops after the last halving." Mining continues, funded by transaction fees, with no new subsidy after about 2140.
How to follow the halving countdown
- 1Find the current block height on any block explorer.
- 2Subtract it from the next halving height, 1,050,000.
- 3Multiply the remaining blocks by about ten minutes to estimate the time.
- 4Remember the estimate changes when blocks arrive faster or slower than ten minutes.
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Frequently asked questions
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
Around 2028, after block 1,050,000. The exact date depends on how quickly blocks are mined.
Why does Bitcoin halve?
To make new supply decline predictably, which caps the total at about 21 million coins.
What is the block reward now?
3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, since April 2024.
Do halvings affect solo miners' odds?
No. They affect the size of the prize, not the chance of finding a block.
Does the halving affect the price?
Nobody can say with certainty. Some argue lower new supply supports prices over time, others say it is already priced in. Past patterns are not promises.
How many halvings are left?
The subsidy keeps halving until it rounds to zero, around the year 2140, after about 33 halvings in total.
What happens to miners after the last halving?
They are paid only by transaction fees, which is why fee income is expected to matter more over time.